A theory for mathematically modeling asphaltene adhesion fouling in heat exchanger tubes was derived and its agreement with experiment suggested feasibility. The premise of this theory is that asphaltene adhesion fouling requires the formation of a chemical bond-modeled here as a sulfur-sulfur bond-which is strong enough to resist fluid dynamic forces. This theory suggests that once an asphaltene monolayer is adsorbed onto a heat transfer surface, shear stress alone may be insufficient for preventing further fouling unless the asphaltene flocculate size distribution can be manipulated, the chemically labile heteroatoms can be deactivated, or the asphaltenes can be kept in solution. A method for calculating fouling threshold shear stresses and flocculate diameters is expounded.