This paper identifies the main features of CO2 emission from fossil energy combustion in China. Then it estimates China's future energy requirements and projects its CO2 emission from 2010 to 2020 based on the scenario analysis approach. China's rate of carbon productivity growth is estimated to be 5.4% in the period 2005-2020, while the CO2 intensity of GDP will reduce by about 50% but CO2 emission in 2020 will still be about 40% higher than prevailing in 2005 because of rapid growth of GDP. This estimation is based on the assumption that China will implement a sustainable development strategy in consideration of climate change issues. The main objectives of the strategy are to implement an "energy conservation first" strategy, to develop renewable energy and advanced nuclear technology actively, to readjust the country's economic structure, and to formulate and legislate laws and regulations, and to build institutions for energy conservation and development of renewable energy. It concludes that international measures to mitigate CO2 emission will limit world fossil fuel consumption. China is not placed to replicate the modernization model adopted by developed countries and has to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide emission control while still in the process of industrialization and modernization. China has to evolve a low carbon industrialization model. This is the key to the success of sustainable development initiatives in China. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.