Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems can achieve a higher coefficient of performance than conventional air-source heat pump (ASHP) systems. For the design of a GSHP system, it is necessary to accurately predict the heat extraction and injection rates of the heat exchanger. Many models that combine ground heat conduction and heat exchangers have been proposed to predict heat extraction/injection rates from/into the ground in the research field of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems. However, most analysis models are inaccurate in their predictions for long periods because they are based on a thermal conduction model using a cylindrical coordinate model or an equivalent diameter model. In this paper, a numerical model that combines a heat transport model with ground water flow and a heat exchanger model with an exact shape is developed. Furthermore, a method for estimating soil properties based on ground investigations is proposed. Comparison between experimental results and numerical analysis based on the model developed above was conducted under the conditions of an experiment from 2004. The analytical results agreed well with the experimental results. Finally, the proposed model was used to predict the heat exchange rate for an actual office building in Japan. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.