The paper reports on research in Tanzania about the scope for developing biofuels from an oil-seed bearing plant called Jatropha curcas Linnaeus. The plant is widely seen to have potential to help combat the greenhouse effect, help to stop local soil erosion, create additional income for the rural poor, and provide a major source of energy both locally and internationally. The principal analytic tool is Strategic Niche Management (SNM), an approach rooted in evolutionary innovation theory. We analyse how the scope for an energy transition is influenced by factors at three societal levels: the overarching 'landscape'; the sectoral setting or 'regime'; and the 'niche' level where the innovation develops and diffuses. Valuable niche processes were found in a few areas, especially in cultivation, but we conclude that there are still many obstacles in Tanzania's prevailing energy regime. The development of Jatropha biofuels is still in an early phase. We list policy recommendations and discuss some methodological issues arising from the use of SNM. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.