This study examines production efficiency of electricity generation in the New Electricity Market of Singapore (NEMS), where deregulation is currently proceeding. Singapore is reliant on foreign direct investments and exports so competition from countries with lower costs such as China and India is exerting pressure on the government to reduce the costs of doing business here. Electricity cost is one of these. Deregulation is believed to be able to bring about lower electricity costs due to the various efficiency gains possible. This study concerns itself mainly with production efficiency and attempts to calculate possible production efficiency gains by using linear programming model. Production-efficiency gains are quantified by the base case scenario of continued regulation versus four counterfactual deregulation scenarios. The results indicate that cost gains could be about eight per cent of current production cost, and this is possibly a lower-bound estimate. However, whether the purported efficiency gains are realized is to be seen as the deregulation proceeds. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.