Journal of Petroleum Technology, Vol.53, No.12, 50-51, 2001
Real options and probabilistic economics: Bridging the gap
Three approaches to economic evaluations that are widely discussed in the literature are decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation, and real options. It has been shown that incorporating decision-tree logic into a Monte Carlo simulation adds insight to the evaluation and can provide an even more realistic asset valuation by incorporating management decision making. While probabilistic economics (either decision trees or Monte Carlo simulations) and real options di significantly in the type and amount of input data, as well as the format and applicability of output, they both have the capability to capture some value of active decision making by management. This paper attempts to bridge the gap between the two approaches, at least conceptually.