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Applied Energy, Vol.80, No.2, 115-124, 2005
Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model
The principal objective of the present study is to examine the possibilities of using a Gompertz-type innovation diffusion process as a stochastic growth model of natural-gas consumption in Spain, and to compare our results with those obtained, on the one hand, by stochastic logistic innovation modelling and, on the,other, by using a stochastic lognormal growth model based on a non-innovation diffusion process. Such a comparison is carried out taking into account the macroeconomic characteristics and natural-gas consumption patterns in Spain, both of which reflect the current expansive situation characterizing the Spanish economy. From the technical standpoint a contribution is also made to the theory of the stochastic Gompertz Innovation diffusion process (SGIDP), as applied to the case in question.(C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:stochastic Gompertz;logistic and lognormal models;natural-gas consumption;estimation and prediction