The objective of this work is to test the hypothesis that the failure probability prediction model by Fischer-Cripps and Collins can be used without introducing an empirically derived parameter and therefore can serve as a predictive tool. We examined this hypothesis by Hertz cone crack initiation tests of flat borosilicate glass statically loaded through a spherical indenter. The Weibull parameters characterizing the surface flaw distribution were determined from biaxial flexure experiments using specimens with the same surface condition as in the indentation tests. Elastic moduli of the specimens were determined by using ultrasonic methods. In addition, the crack initiation was determined using stereo microscopy at 20 x magnification. The results demonstrated that the model can predict the minimum critical load and cumulative failure probability for small indenters within the 90% confidence level. Therefore, the current work demonstrates that the model can be used as a predictive tool provided the parameters necessary for the model accurately reflect those of the actual sample populations that are used for the experimental setup. C (C) 2003 Kluwer Academic Publishers.