The present cost of fuel cells estimated at about $200 kW(-1) is a major barrier for commercialization and use in automotive applications. In the United States the target costs for fuel cell systems for the year 2004 as formulated by PNGV are $50 kW(-1). Lomax et al. have estimated the costs of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells to be as low as $20 kW(-1). These estimates are based on careful consideration of high volume manufacturing processes. Recently, Arthur D. Little (ADL) has estimated the cost of a fuel cell system for transportation at $294 kW(-1). This estimate considers a fuel processor and directly related balance of plant components. The difference of the cost estimates results from the vastly different design assumptions. Both of these estimates are based on considering a single high volume of production, 500,000 fuel cells per year. This work builds on these earlier estimates by employing the methods of technical cost modeling and thereby including explicit consideration of design specifications, exogenous factor cost and processing and operational details. The bipolar plate is analyzed as a case study. The sensitivity of the costs to uncertainty in process conditions are explored following the ADL design. It is shown that the PNGV targets can only be achieved with design changes that reduce the quantity of material used. This might necessitate a reduction in efficiency from the assumed 80 mpg.