Chemical Engineering Research & Design, Vol.137, 553-565, 2018
Sparse Bayesian learning for data driven polynomial chaos expansion with application to chemical processes
Uncertainties are ubiquitous in process system engineering. Hence, to develop a safe and profitable process, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is necessary in a reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) analysis. Generalized polynomial chaos expansions can be used as an efficient approach to UQ and work efficiently under the assumption of perfect knowledge with regard to the probability density distribution function of uncertainties. However, this assumption can hardly be satisfied in a real process scenario, mainly because of the limited knowledge regarding the probability density distribution function of uncertainties. To solve these issues, this study investigates the performance of orthogonal polynomial chaos in the UQ of chemical processes, including synthesis gas production and natural gas dehydration. Simultaneously, the limitations of orthogonal polynomial chaos were also investigated by an overwhelming sparse Bayesian learning approach considering a complicated nonlinear crude oil distillation unit with moderate uncertainty numbers. We found that the application of orthogonal polynomial chaos was limited to a small number of uncertainties, mainly because of using the polynomial's tensor product. Finally, the orthogonal polynomial chaos and sparse Bayesian learning approach were rendered computationally effective in comparison with the conventional Monte Carlo method (approximately 96.5% improvement). (C) 2018 Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords:Uncertainty quantification;Data driven;Polynomial chaos;Synthesis gas production;Natural gas dehydration;Crude oil distillation unit