The cost of hydrogen in early fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) markets is dominated by the cost of refueling stations, mainly due to the high cost of refueling equipment, small station capacities, lack of economies of scale, and low utilization of the installed refueling capacity. Using the hydrogen delivery scenario analysis model (HDSAM), this study estimates the impacts of these factors on the refueling cost for different refueling technologies and configurations, and quantifies the potential reduction in future hydrogen refueling cost compared to today's cost in the United States. The current hydrogen refueling station levelized cost, for a 200 kg/day dispensing capacity, is in the range of $6-$8/kg H-2 when supplied with gaseous hydrogen, and $8-$9/kg H-2 for stations supplied with liquid hydrogen. After adding the cost of hydrogen production, packaging, and transportation to the station's levelized cost, the current cost of hydrogen at dispensers for FCEVs in California is in the range of $13-$15/kg H-2. The refueling station capacity utilization strongly influences the hydrogen refueling cost. The underutilization of station capacity in early FCEV markets, such as in California, results in a levelized station cost that is approximately 40% higher than it would be in a scenario where the station had been fully utilized since it began operating. In future mature hydrogen FCEV markets, with a large demand for hydrogen, the refueling station's levelized cost can be reduced to $2/kg H-2 as a result of improved capacity utilization and reduced equipment cost via learning and economies of scale. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC.