As a crucial step in nuclear-based hydrogen production Cu-Cl cycle, the performance analysis of the heat transfer processes is of paramount importance. However, as a newly built system, the major obstacle of applying standard performance analysis methods to the heat transfer process is the sparse data, i.e., there is not sufficient experimental data available for a systematic performance analysis. In this research, a Monte-Carlo Simulation -based (MCS-based) performance analysis method is developed, and it is demonstrated that this method can be used effectively to tackle the problems caused by sparse data in the heat transfer processes. In this paper, the details of the heat transfer process in a nuclear-based hydrogen production based on a four-step Cu-Cl cycle are discussed first. Afterwards, modeling of the heat transfer process for MCS-based performance analysis is provided. Finally, the confidence interval of the simulation results is obtained. This method forms the basis for the future study of reliability of nuclear-based hydrogen production. (C) 2016 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.