화학공학소재연구정보센터
Journal of Petroleum Technology, Vol.51, No.5, 48-54, 1999
National health, wealth, and energy use
Great disparity exists in the distribution of wealth among nations. National well-being, as measured by such commonly accepted indicators as infant mortality, child malnutrition, life expectancy, and literacy rates correlates well with national wealth, which, in turn, correlates well with energy consumption. Developed industrial nations rank high in national well-being; however, on a per-capita basis, these nations own a disproportionate share of world wealth and consume a disproportionate share of the world's energy Economic growth correlates well with growth of energy consumption in both rich and poor nations, and, conversely, reductions in energy consumption correlate with economic decline. When energy consumption is expressed as a function of gross national product (GNP) instead of on a per-capita basis, developed nations use energy more efficiently than poorer ones. Fossil fuels furnish 90% of the world's energy (oil and gas supply 63%), and their use has grown by 14% over the last decade (oil and gas use is up 19%). Long-range concerns about depleting fossil-fuel resources and more immediate concerns about increases in atmospheric CO2 produced by their combustion and the postulated ill effects of global warming weigh against continued increase in use of fossil fuels and favor alternative energy sources. Examination of alternatives suggests that none of the alternatives, other than possibly nuclear and hydropower (both in environmental and political disfavor), offer hope for supplying more than a fraction of demand. Hence, either the natural limits on use of fossil fuels set by depleting resources or the setting of artificial limits in an effort to control CO2 emissions (tentatively agreed to in Kyoto and Buenos Aires) contrast starkly with the need for more energy consumption to improve the economic development of all nations and particularly the poorer ones. This paper explores these relationships and identifies some of the hard choices that lie ahead that inevitably will impact the use of oil and gas.