This paper proposes a stochastic model on ceramic granule collapse in a spherical powder compact during cold isostatic pressing (CIP). To estimate stress distribution in a compact during CIP, an ordinary differential equation for radial displacement is formulated when Young's modulus is given as a function of radial coordinate. By solving the differential equation numerically, the stress distribution is actually estimated. Based on fracture location theory combined with the stress distribution, the joint probability density function of granule collapse and also its related functions are derived as functions of radial coordinate and applied CIP pressure. A numerical simulation is carried out for a given parameters, and it is shown that the collapse probability of granules is gradually increased with the CIP pressure and also becomes higher at the surface than inside the powder compact after CIP. (C) 2016 The Society of Powder Technology Japan. Published by Elsevier B.V. and The Society of Powder Technology Japan. All rights reserved.