Identifying the drivers of carbon dioxide emissions in the manufacturing industry is vital for developing effective environmental policies. This study adopts provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013 and uses nonparametric additive regression models to analyze the drivers of CO2 emissions in the industry. The results show that the nonlinear effect of economic growth on CO2 emissions supports the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Energy structure has an inverted "U-shape" effect owing to massive coal consumption in the early stages and the optimization of energy structure in the later stage. The inverted "U-shaped" impact of industrialization may be due to the priority development of heavy industry in the early stages and the optimization of industrial structure in the later stages. The impact of urbanization also exhibits an inverted "U-shaped" pattern because of mass consumption of steel and cement products in the early stages and the advancement in clean energy technologies at the later stages. However, specific energy consumption has a positive "U-shaped" impact because of the difference in the speed of technological progress at different times. Thus, the differential effects of these indicators at different times should be taken into consideration when discussing reduction of CO2 emissions in China's manufacturing industry. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.