Renewable Energy, Vol.83, 234-244, 2015
Real-time prediction intervals for intra-hour DNI forecasts
We develop a hybrid, real-time solar forecasting computational model to construct prediction intervals (Pis) of one-minute averaged direct normal irradiance for four intra-hour forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and 20 min. This hybrid model, which integrates sky imaging techniques, support vector machine and artificial neural network sub-models, is developed using one year of co-located, high-quality irradiance and sky image recording in Folsom, California. We validate the proposed model using six-month of measured irradiance and sky image data, and apply it to construct operational PI forecasts in real-time at the same observatory. In the real-time scenario, the hybrid model significantly outperforms the reference persistence model and provides high performance PIs regardless of forecast horizon and weather condition. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:Solar forecasting;Prediction intervals;Sky imaging;Support vector machines;Artificial neural networks