Air (reverse Brayton) cycle has promising features in cold climate heat pump applications. In this study, an air cycle heat pump water heater (ACHPWH) simulation model considering the off-design performance of components was developed and validated with experimental data from literature. With this model, the performance of ACHPWH was numerically compared with two typical vapor compression heat pump water heaters (VCHPWH) under two different heating schemes, namely instantaneous heating and recirculation heating. For instantaneous heating, the COP of ACHPWH is comparable to that of VCHPWH when supplying high temperature water or operating at low ambient temperature. A significant improvement on annual performance would be achieved as well if higher efficient compressor and expander were applied in ACHPWH system. For recirculation heating, although the COP gap got larger, ACHPWH would save plenty of heating time when operating at low ambient temperature. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.