Renewable Energy, Vol.87, 145-153, 2016
Sensitivity analysis of a photovoltaic solar plant in Chile
A total of 22 cities in Chile were analyzed focusing the development of a 30 MW Photovoltaic Solar Plant using RETScreen software. Results of the study indicate that Calama City presents interesting results, with a Capacity Factor of 34.0% and an Energy Production of 92523 MWh. However, with a discount rate of 12% and an evaluation of 30 years, a Net Present Value (NPV) of -67 x 10(6) USD and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 7.0% were obtained due to the high investment cost. Applying a 40% incentive in Calama City, the NPV reaches 11 x 10(6) USD, with an IRR of 13.7%, thus obtaining positive financial results. Sensitivity analysis, without the incentive applied, considers the variation of +/- 30% for five parameters, indicating that the initial cost and the electricity export rate significantly influence the results of the project. A risk analysis was performed on these parameters indicating that an NPV <= 0 and an IRR >= 12% were reached for 94.0% and 7.0% of the projects, respectively considering the initial cost. Analyzing the electricity export rate, only 5.0% of the projects had positive results for NPV and only 4.0% of the projects meet the criteria established for the IRR. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:Solar radiation;Dual-axis PV solar plant;Risk analysis;CO2 emissions;Financial/economic analysis;RETScreen