화학공학소재연구정보센터
Energy Policy, Vol.84, 1-10, 2015
Environmental and health impacts of a policy to phase out nuclear power in Sweden
Nuclear power faces an uncertain future in Sweden. Major political parties, including the Green party of the coalition-government have recently strongly advocated for a policy to decommission the Swedish nuclear fleet prematurely. Here we examine the environmental, health and (to a lesser extent) economic impacts of implementing such a plan. The process has already been started through the early shutdown of the Barseback plant. We estimate that the political decision to shut down Barseback has resulted in similar to 2400 avoidable energy-production-related deaths and an increase in global CO2 emissions of 95 million tonnes to date (October 2014). The Swedish reactor fleet as a whole has reached just past its halfway point of production, and has a remaining potential production of up to 2100 TWh. The reactors have the potential of preventing 1.9-2.1 gigatonnes of future CO2-emissions if allowed to operate their full life-spans. The potential for future prevention of energy-related-deaths is 50,000-60,000. We estimate an 800 billion SEK (120 billion USD) lower-bound estimate for the lost tax revenue from an early phase-out policy. In sum, the evidence shows that implementing a 'nuclear-free' policy for Sweden (or countries in a similar situation) would constitute a highly retrograde step for climate, health and economic protection. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).