Applied Energy, Vol.135, 815-824, 2014
A General Maximum Entropy Econometric approach to model industrial electricity prices in Spain: A challenge for the competitiveness
The Spanish Integral Plan of Industrial Policy 2020 points out the energy cost containment as one of the priority actions to improve the competitiveness of industry. In fact, electricity prices for industrial consumers are of particular importance for international competitiveness, as electricity usually represents a significant proportion of its total energy costs. In order to establish economic policies to reduce industrial electricity prices, it is important to analyze its determinants. Mainly, since the liberalization of the Spanish electricity industry, a wholesale electricity market is created where electricity price is determined by the short-term marginal cost (mainly the fuels) of the different electricity generation technologies. This paper analyses how important are fuel cost- such as natural gas, coal and oil prices- in explaining the variations in Spanish electricity prices for industrial consumers by using a General Maximum Entropy Econometric approach. The obtained results suggest that imported fuel prices could affect competitiveness of manufacturing and other industries as it involves important effects on the level and stability of the electricity prices. The promotion of clean technologies, the increase of the energy and resource efficiency of Spanish companies or the implementation of energy conservation projects at industrial sector become a way to reduce the vulnerability of Spanish industry competitiveness to electricity prices. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:General Maximum Entropy;Industrial competitiveness;Energy cost;Electricity prices;Spanish industry