Solar Energy, Vol.84, No.12, 2146-2160, 2010
Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks
In this paper, we present an application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in the renewable energy domain We particularly look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network which has been the most used of ANNs architectures both in the renewable energy domain and in the time series forecasting We have used a MLP and an ad hoc time series pre-processing to develop a methodology for the daily prediction of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface First results are promising with nRMSE similar to 21% and RMSE similar to 3 59 MJ/m(2) The optimized MLP presents predictions similar to or even better than conventional and reference methods such as ARIMA techniques, Bayesian inference, Markov chains and k-Nearest Neighbors Moreover we found that the data pre-processing approach proposed can reduce significantly forecasting errors of about 6% compared to conventional prediction methods such as Markov chains or Bayesian inference The simulator proposed has been obtained using 19 years of available data from the meteorological station of Ajaccio (Corsica Island, France, 41 degrees 55'N, 8 degrees 44'E, 4 m above mean sea level) The predicted whole methodology has been validated on a 1 175 kWc mono-Si PV power grid Six prediction methods (ANN, clear sky model, combination) allow to predict the best daily DC PV power production at horizon d + 1 The cumulated DC PV energy on a 6-months period shows a great agreement between simulated and measured data (R(2) > 0 99 and nRMSE < 2%) (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved
Keywords:Time series forecasting;Pre processing;Artificial Neural Networks;PV Plant Energy Prediction