A comparative study between two types of solar ponds is presented. The first type has its free surface covered by a thin laver of transparent paraffin oil. The second type is covered by transparent glass floating devices. Each device disposes an air-vacuum chamber. The free water surface between these devices is covered by transparent paraffin oil also. The thermal storage efficiency of each pond is estimated during two time periods: between sunrise and sunset and from midnight to midnight. The calculated efficiency between sunrise and sunset corresponds to the average transmittance-absorptance product. This is estimated using linear regression and also a maximum likelihood identification technique. The behavior of the system was studied by solving numerically the heat transfer equations of the system. Also an ARMAX (AutoRegressivie Moving Average with eXogenous signal) model allowing the assessment of its performance was presented. This efficiency is larger for the first pond during the sunrise to sunset period and smaller when calculated from midnight to midnight. Thus, the first type of pond could be preferred for a use just after the sunset of the same day, while the second for use after one or more days of heat storage. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.