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International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol.32, No.2, 153-158, 2007
Will lack of energy lead to the demise of high-technology countries in this century?
Hubbert's Peak will be reached by 2011. Thereafter, the world economy will be threatened by energy starvation. Nuclear energy costs much more than certain renewables: the needed 1800 reactors would take 50 years to build. Wind energy could supply the whole country: its building time might be reduced to 10 years. The available energy from coal would be 6 percent of what is known to be there. But its application to drive heat engines would be subject to the Second Law of Thermodynamics and hence yield only one-third of what is thought available: 20 years if applied to run America. No known method of sequestration of CO2 on earth would be reliable for more than 10 years. The Administration's plans to use coal and nuclear are unacceptable and so is the latest: biofuels. Brazil's success with them is due to her use of sugar cane fermentation to alcohol. We do not have the necessary land area and must use corn, a process involving gasoline energy more than the energy of the alcohol produced. Wind, solar, and eventually hot rock geothermal can supply all the energy we need, will never exhaust, and are entirely clear. There are intelligent, knowledgeable men who avor we can withstand the challenge of Hubbert's Peak with C-containing fuels. Tar sands need natural gas to distill out the oil. Abiogenic methane has been know to have no basis. Methane in the tundra is not a potential fuel but its release, now occuring, is the greatest threat we have. The view ahead is dark and threatening. It demands unprecedentd actions. (c) 2006 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.