The aim of this study was to determine biorefining efficiency according to the choices made in the entire value chain. The importance of the share of biomass volume biorefined or products substituted was investigated. Agrifood-waste-based biorefining represented the case. Anticipatory scenarios were designed for contrasting targets and compared with the current situation in two Finnish regions. Biorefining increases nutrient and energy efficiency in comparison with current use of waste. System boundaries decisively influence the relative efficiency of biorefining designs. For nutrient efficiency, full exploitation of biomass potential and anaerobic digestion increase nutrient efficiency, but the main determinant is efficient substitution for mineral fertilisers. For energy efficiency, combustion and location of biorefining close to heat demand are crucial. Regional differences in agricultural structure, the extent of the food industry and population density have a major impact on biorefining. High degrees of exploitation of feedstock potential and substitution efficiency are the keys. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.