A new model for enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass distinguishes causal influences from enzyme deactivation and restrictions on the accessibility of cellulose. It focuses on calculating the amount of unreacted cellulose at cessation of enzyme activity, unlike existing models that were constructed for calculating the time dependence of conversion. There are three adjustable parameters: (1) 'occluded cellulose' is defined as cellulose that cannot be hydrolysed regardless of enzyme loading or incubation time, (2) a 'characteristic enzyme loading' is sufficient to hydrolyse half of the non-occluded cellulose, (3) a 'mechanism index' measures deviations from first-order kinetics. This model was used to predict that the optimal incubation temperature is lower for lignocellulosics than for pure cellulose. For steam-exploded pine wood after 96 h incubation, occluded cellulose was 24% and 26% at 30 degrees C and 50 degrees C, and the characteristic enzyme loadings were 10 and 18 FPU/g substrate, respectively. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.