Following up the rather sobering results of the biofuels boom in Tanzania, we analyze the preconditions that would make large-scale oil production from the feedstock Jatropha curcas viable. We do this by employing an economic land evaluation approach; first, we estimate the physical land suitability and the necessary inputs to reach certain amounts of yields. Subsequently, we estimate costs and benefits. for different input-output levels. Finally, to incorporate the increased awareness of sustainability in the export sector, we introduce also certification criteria. Using data from an experimental farm in Kilosa, we find that high yields are crucial for the economic feasibility and that they can only be obtained on good soils at high input rates. Costs of compliance with certification criteria depend on site specific characteristics such as land suitability and precipitation. In general, both domestic production and (certified) exports are too expensive to be able to compete with conventional diesel/rapeseed oil from the EU. Even though the crop may have potential for large scale production as a niche product, there is still a lot of risk involved and more experimental research is needed. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.