This study analyzes current energy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission trends in China's cement industry as the basis for modeling different levels of cement production and rates of efficiency improvement and carbon reduction in 2011-2030. Three cement output projections are developed based on analyses of historical production and physical and macroeconomic drivers. For each of these three production projections, energy savings and CO2 emission reduction potentials are estimated in a best practice scenario and two continuous improvement scenarios relative to a frozen scenario. The results reveal the potential for cumulative final energy savings of 27.1 to 37.5 exajoules and energy-related direct emission reductions of 3.2 to 4.4 gigatonnes in 2011-2030 under the best practice scenarios. The continuous improvement scenarios produce cumulative final energy savings of 6.0 to 18.9 exajoules and reduce CO2 emissions by 1.0 to 2.4 gigatonnes. This analysis highlights that increasing energy efficiency is the most important policy measure for reducing the cement industry's energy and emissions intensity, given the current state of the industry and the unlikelihood of significant carbon capture and storage before 2030. In addition, policies to reduce total cement production offer the most direct way of reducing total energy consumption and CO2 emissions. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.