Appraising low carbon energy potential in China and studying its contribution to China's target of cutting CO2 emissions by 40-45% per unit of GDP by 2020 is crucial for taking countermeasures against climate change and identifying low carbon energy development strategies. This paper presents two scenarios and evaluates the development potential for low carbon energy and its various sources. Based on the evaluation, we analyze how low carbon energy contributes to achieving China's national target of carbon intensity reduction. We draw several conclusions from the analysis. First, low carbon energy will contribute 9.74% (minimum) to 24.42% (maximum) toward the 2020 carbon intensity target under three economic development schemes. Second, the contribution will decrease when the GDP growth rate increases. Third, to maintain the same contribution with high GDP growth rates, China should not only strengthen its investment and policy stimulation for low carbon energy but also simultaneously optimize economic structures and improve carbon productivity. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.